Independent equity research
We find the choke point before the market prices it.
Company notes for investors who want the structural constraint identified, the value chain cross-referenced, and the owner of the bottleneck named.
Four stages, run in the same order, on every name we cover.
We are a collective of independent retail and former professional traders. Teardown, cross-reference, bottleneck analysis, synthesis. We write each stage as we go, so what publishes is the working record and you can see where a conclusion came from.
Featured research
Four initiations, each structured around a constraint the market is not pricing directly. Plus one short-dated trade note, which carries no framework stance.
Kodiak AI
The file the desk is spending most of its time on. It means depth of work, not a signal to act, and it is where our open questions are concentrated.
NASDAQ: KDK·Speculative3 updates since publication
A binary option on the first mover in driverless freight, paired with the house conviction that the real underfollowed opportunity sits one layer over, in the trucking insurance complex.
We are long KDK. Opened 31 August 2026 at $3.83, average cost $3.77 as of 18 September 2026. We are telling you that here because this is the name we feature most.
Why this one
Two of our other publications exist because of this name. Our house view on autonomous freight was built out of it, and our Progressive note exists because we went to test that view against a real insurer's book and found we had the wrong entity. The thread is still open.
- Position changeWe added to Kodiak on Friday’s twelve-month low. Average cost is now $3.77.20 Sep 2026
- RevisionThree corrections to this note: a position we did not disclose, a figure we got wrong, and a business we missed.12 Sep 2026
- MonitorSeven analysts now cover Kodiak. None of them price the bottleneck.12 Sep 2026
Where we think the direction is settled
A house view is a stated conviction about structural direction, separate from any single equity. It sets what we look for and where we are willing to be early.
The industrialization of genetic cures
Casgevy is the first commercial proof that a single administration can functionally cure a genetic disease. Across even a fraction of the roughly 7,000 known monogenic disorders, the modality stops being niche therapy.
The constraint →Driverless freight, and the insurance nobody is pricing
A driverless truck removes the human driver, the largest operating cost and the largest source of insured loss. That rewrites a $43B commercial auto line controlled by five balance sheets.
The constraint →Have a name you want torn down?
We take coverage requests. Tell us the ticker and what you think the market is missing.